Lets look macro-ly
Let's extend our magnifying glass
elsewhere.
Interest rates
keep falling everywhere, and some even went negative.
Deflation is
happening in many countries, except Hong Kong (4.7%)
Property
prices is falling globally, look at US house prices and its vacancy rate,
still in deep shit. Except Hong Kong and Canada.
Swiss unpegged
Euro without a choice, they hold more than 45% Euro of its total foreign currency investments, continuous buying Euro
will pull the whole country bankrupt.
US dollars and
its assets, US Bonds are the only choice for capitals.
Even China is
under austerity.
Dow continuous
to go up, US share market peaking made you think the economy is rebounding.
Oil price fell
close to US$44 and rebounding back to US$53. Has this relieved your tension?
Politically
Russia, Ukraine, Syria, US, UK, France, Middle East, Iraq, China, Japan, all
tangled.
Whether the
Dow will reach 32000? When all capital are flooding the US stock market, maybe
it is very likely, and seems like this is the trend happening.
Will HK
property market crashed this year? I think chance is dim.
How about oil
price? It will drop further, same as Euros when more countries abandoned it. If
you believe this is an oil price war where US allied with Middle East against Russia.
How about
Gold? Well, same as all other assets, it will rise together with other assets
when people are selling USD and bonds. As Armstrong said "Gold will not rise until the people question government and that is the
masses – not a small segment".
China is
struggling and being tied by USD. Therefore the government reacted abruptly
lately.
If we believe
no pegs will last, think about HKD before it is too late to act.
Totally argue with your insight.
ReplyDeleteJust wonder when will HK dollar unpeg happen. Will it happen after the US rate hike and US dollar become too strong and hurt our economic deeply?
What shall ordinary people like us should do in order to prepare a global catastrophe in biblical scale??
Revelation 6:5-6
5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
Was it agree or argue? :)
ReplyDeleteWell, free market shalt drive the change, not CY or Tsang.
Even the HKD appreciate (due to the peg of USD) theoretically the RMB should be relative depreciate, but I don’t see the commodity price have drop. It’s like an crude that easily arise price but slowly reduce price, how come Hong Kong people can against the inflation.
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